There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Orient Overseas (International) (HKG:316) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Orient Overseas (International):
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.043 = US$599m ÷ (US$16b - US$2.3b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
Therefore, Orient Overseas (International) has an ROCE of 4.3%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Shipping industry average of 6.8%.
See our latest analysis for Orient Overseas (International)
In the above chart we have measured Orient Overseas (International)'s prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Orient Overseas (International) for free.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
In terms of Orient Overseas (International)'s historical ROCE trend, it doesn't exactly demand attention. The company has consistently earned 4.3% for the last five years, and the capital employed within the business has risen 68% in that time. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.
In Conclusion...
As we've seen above, Orient Overseas (International)'s returns on capital haven't increased but it is reinvesting in the business. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 931% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.
If you want to know some of the risks facing Orient Overseas (International) we've found 4 warning signs (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
While Orient Overseas (International) may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.