The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Jinchuan Group International Resources Co. Ltd (HKG:2362) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Jinchuan Group International Resources
What Is Jinchuan Group International Resources's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2024 Jinchuan Group International Resources had US$552.5m of debt, an increase on US$418.7m, over one year. However, it does have US$109.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$443.5m.
How Strong Is Jinchuan Group International Resources' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Jinchuan Group International Resources had liabilities of US$309.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$827.7m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$109.0m in cash and US$64.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$963.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$965.1m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Jinchuan Group International Resources' use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Jinchuan Group International Resources has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.2 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.1 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. However, the silver lining was that Jinchuan Group International Resources achieved a positive EBIT of US$48m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year's loss. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Jinchuan Group International Resources's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, Jinchuan Group International Resources saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
Mulling over Jinchuan Group International Resources's attempt at converting EBIT to free cash flow, we're certainly not enthusiastic. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn't such a worry. We're quite clear that we consider Jinchuan Group International Resources to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Jinchuan Group International Resources .
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.