Last week, you might have seen that CNOOC Limited (HKG:883) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.4% to HK$18.02 in the past week. CNOOC beat revenue forecasts by a solid 15% to hit CN¥227b. Statutory earnings per share came in at CN¥2.60, in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on CNOOC after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for CNOOC
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from CNOOC's 15 analysts is for revenues of CN¥449.7b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 2.8% to CN¥3.09. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥445.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.09 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of HK$23.20, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CNOOC at HK$32.01 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$8.89. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that CNOOC's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.08% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while CNOOC's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$23.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on CNOOC. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CNOOC going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with CNOOC (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.