To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. In light of that, when we looked at China Railway Signal & Communication (HKG:3969) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. The formula for this calculation on China Railway Signal & Communication is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.07 = CN¥3.7b ÷ (CN¥119b - CN¥66b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
Therefore, China Railway Signal & Communication has an ROCE of 7.0%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 7.4%, it's still a low return by itself.
Check out our latest analysis for China Railway Signal & Communication
In the above chart we have measured China Railway Signal & Communication's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering China Railway Signal & Communication for free.
How Are Returns Trending?
In terms of China Railway Signal & Communication's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 13%, but since then they've fallen to 7.0%. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn't moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.
On a separate but related note, it's important to know that China Railway Signal & Communication has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 56%, which we'd consider pretty high. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.
The Key Takeaway
To conclude, we've found that China Railway Signal & Communication is reinvesting in the business, but returns have been falling. Unsurprisingly then, the total return to shareholders over the last five years has been flat. Therefore based on the analysis done in this article, we don't think China Railway Signal & Communication has the makings of a multi-bagger.
On a final note, we've found 1 warning sign for China Railway Signal & Communication that we think you should be aware of.
While China Railway Signal & Communication may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.