Evergreen Products Group Limited (HKG:1962) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 32% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 39% in the last year.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Evergreen Products Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
For instance, Evergreen Products Group's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
View our latest analysis for Evergreen Products Group
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Evergreen Products Group would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 22%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 19% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.
In light of this, it's curious that Evergreen Products Group's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
Evergreen Products Group's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of Evergreen Products Group revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Evergreen Products Group (2 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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