With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.5x China Boton Group Company Limited (HKG:3318) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Recent times have been quite advantageous for China Boton Group as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
View our latest analysis for China Boton Group
How Is China Boton Group's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, China Boton Group would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 203% last year. EPS has also lifted 15% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 21% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.
In light of this, it's alarming that China Boton Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
What We Can Learn From China Boton Group's P/E?
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that China Boton Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for China Boton Group (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that we have uncovered.
If you're unsure about the strength of China Boton Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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