There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. However, after investigating JTF International Holdings (HKG:9689), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. The formula for this calculation on JTF International Holdings is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.04 = CN¥18m ÷ (CN¥497m - CN¥41m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
Thus, JTF International Holdings has an ROCE of 4.0%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Oil and Gas industry average of 6.4%.
See our latest analysis for JTF International Holdings
Historical performance is a great place to start when researching a stock so above you can see the gauge for JTF International Holdings' ROCE against it's prior returns. If you want to delve into the historical earnings , check out these free graphs detailing revenue and cash flow performance of JTF International Holdings.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
When we looked at the ROCE trend at JTF International Holdings, we didn't gain much confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 4.0% from 30% five years ago. Given the business is employing more capital while revenue has slipped, this is a bit concerning. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.
The Bottom Line
We're a bit apprehensive about JTF International Holdings because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. Yet despite these concerning fundamentals, the stock has performed strongly with a 81% return over the last five years, so investors appear very optimistic. Regardless, we don't feel too comfortable with the fundamentals so we'd be steering clear of this stock for now.
JTF International Holdings does have some risks, we noticed 3 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.